Opinion: Microsoft would have us believe Vista will take the market by storm this year, but the reality may prove quite different.All questions about the quality of the software aside, you have to give it to Microsoft: This is a company that understands marketing.
Just as the software maker prepared to launch the long-awaited Vista operating system, IDC released a Microsoft-commissioned study saying that for every $1 Microsoft makes with Vista, the ecosystem supporting its deployment will cash in $18. The study further projected that Vista-related jobs will reach 18 percent of total IT employment in the United States during Vista’s first year of shipment.
Impressive, right? The relevant question, of course, comes down to just how optimistic the study is.
Although distribution sources say they have seen early consumer-driven demand for Vista, solution providers by and large haven’t detected any real interest among their customers, as the cover story in the January edition of eWeek Strategic Partner reports.
Vista's prospects look blurry.
To be fair, no one seems to deny that Vista will generate a healthy chunk of business for the channel, but whether the operating system will produce the $70 billion in hardware, software packages and services that the IDC study projected for this year alone remains to be seen.
I don’t mean to cast stones at the good folks at IDC, who do a tremendous job, but projections are just that. And if solution providers say customers aren’t biting yet, chances are the adoption of the new operating system will be considerably more gradual than Microsoft would have us believe.
But, then again, seeing how effective Microsoft’s marketing has been for decades, I wouldn’t put it past the company to persuade enough users they can’t live without Vista to make 2007 a successful-enough year for the new operating system. ´
Pedro Pereira is editor of eWEEK Strategic Partner. He can be reached at ppereira@ziffdavis.com.
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