A Blurry Vista: Uncertainty Reigns

Evan Leonard knows that uncertainty is the ally of anyone selling, servicing, or integrating technology hardware or software. The president and co-founder of CHIPS Computer Consulting, in Lake Success, N.Y., has seen his fair share over the last 13 years.

When it comes to Microsoft’s new operating system, Vista, uncertainty looks like it will be a boon to solution providers. Perhaps at no other time since Microsoft unleashed MS-DOS has uncertainty dogged an operating system so much.

With Vista, “uncertainty is a certainty,” Leonard said. “Customers are asking us what it will cost to put in Vista. Will they have to upgrade the PCs? They want to know how credible their infrastructure [is] to run Vista.”

Based on interviews with systems integrators, IT managers and analysts, Vista uncertainty falls into three broad categories: hardware capabilities, security and synergy with other Microsoft products. Combined, these three areas of uncertainty will shape the channel’s early engagement with customers about Vista and by what means—and when—they ultimately will deploy Microsoft’s flagship operating system.

With regard to those three categories of uncertainty, businesses already are asking hard questions about Vista hardware requirements and whether they will have to upgrade their PCs. Security is one of Vista’s most touted selling points, but customers are uncertain about benefits versus costs. To complicate matters, Microsoft launched three other products with Vista, and  businesses are uncertain about which other software they should deploy with the operating system and when.

Early customer engagement will put systems integrators and services providers in the role of trusted IT advisers, helping businesses understand where, why and how they will deploy Vista. The role will vary based on business size. Analysts and solution providers expect smaller businesses to be the fastest Vista adopters, while enterprises will need strategic planning assistance even before starting deployments.

“Whenever technology outpaces the typical end user’s ability to keep up, it creates tremendous opportunity for the channel and the reseller to be the trusted adviser,” said Dan Schwab, vice president of marketing for D&H Distributing. “I think Vista creates tremendous opportunity for resellers.”

The adviser role is more important with Vista than with almost any other Microsoft operating system release. After years of stability, in part because of Windows XP’s longevity in the marketplace, IT organizations are faced with tough decisions about hardware requirements; software compatibility; additional training support costs; and the overall implementation costs versus the benefits of new features, such as security enhancements and improved search capabilities.

The windfall is potentially huge. A December 2006 IDC study commissioned by Microsoft concluded that, for every dollar made by Microsoft on Vista, the “ecosystem beyond Microsoft will reap $18 in revenues.” If this comes to pass, in 2007 this ecosystem, which includes channel partners, distributors and independent software developers, should sell about $70 billion in products and services revolving around Vista.